Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has ignited a fresh political and constitutional debate after declaring that Kenya is approaching a decisive “referendum moment” ahead of the 2027 General Election, warning that unresolved legal and structural flaws could plunge the country into an unprecedented electoral crisis.
Mudavadi issued a statement on December 26, arguing that the country is already in constitutional non-compliance and that only a referendum held alongside the 2027 polls can avert the risk of elections being challenged or even nullified.
Boundary review crisis at the heart of the storm
At the centre of Mudavadi’s argument is the stalled review of electoral boundaries. He noted that the Constitution requires constituency boundaries to be reviewed every eight to twelve years, with the last review concluded in March 2012. That means the legal window closed in March 2024, placing the state in breach of the Constitution.
He warned that ongoing and potential litigation could seek to stop the 2027 elections altogether on the grounds that outdated boundaries deny Kenyans fair and equal representation.
“This is not a theoretical problem,” Mudavadi cautioned, saying the country is staring at a “massive legal crisis” if elections proceed without compliance with Article 89 of the Constitution.
Census deadlock complicates 2027 preparations
Mudavadi linked the boundary review impasse to what he described as a census deadlock. The 2019 national census was nullified by the High Court in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa counties, with the court ordering a mini-census in the three counties by January 2026 — an exercise yet to be conducted.
According to Mudavadi, mixing 2019 census data for 44 counties with fresh 2026 data for three counties would create a legally indefensible “patchwork census”, making it impossible to generate a valid national population quota for delimiting constituencies.
“Without a credible population base conducted at the same time across the country, there can be no lawful boundary review,” he said, warning that such inconsistencies would almost certainly be struck down by the courts.
Structural bottlenecks in representation
Mudavadi also faulted constitutional and legislative caps that no longer reflect Kenya’s demographic realities. He pointed to Article 89, which limits constituencies to 290 despite rapid population growth, preventing the creation of new seats in high-density areas unless the Constitution is amended.
He further highlighted contradictions at the county level, where the Constitution allows the electoral commission to vary county assembly wards, yet the County Governments Act caps wards at 1,450 nationwide — a restriction he said undermines equitable representation and service delivery.
NADCO proposals revive referendum debate
The Prime Cabinet Secretary anchored much of his argument on recommendations by the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), which identified several reforms that can only be resolved through a referendum.
Key among them is the entrenchment of the National Government Constituencies Development Fund (NG-CDF) in the Constitution to shield it from repeated court challenges that have threatened bursaries and grassroots projects.
Mudavadi also proposed the creation of new development funds, including a Senate Oversight Fund to support senators’ devolved oversight role, and a Ward Development Fund to enable Members of County Assembly to respond directly to local needs such as water points and community halls.
Gender rule and new offices in government
He further argued that a referendum presents an opportunity to finally resolve the long-standing failure to implement the two-thirds gender rule, describing constitutional recalibration as necessary to achieve fairness and inclusive democracy.
In a move likely to stir further political debate, Mudavadi also called for the formal establishment of the offices of Prime Minister and Leader of the Official Opposition, saying this would enhance national cohesion, inclusivity and provide a clearer structure for governance.
A warning shot to the political class
Mudavadi framed his remarks as a sober warning rather than a political gambit, insisting that the convergence of boundary, census and representation challenges has created what he termed a “constitutional moment”.
“No valid population data, no boundary review, and therefore no valid general election,” he warned, arguing that ignoring the crisis could see Kenya depart from its long-held tradition of holding elections every five years.
By placing the referendum debate squarely within the legal risks surrounding the 2027 polls, Mudavadi has effectively thrown down a gauntlet to Parliament, political parties and civil society — setting the stage for a contentious national conversation on whether constitutional change is now unavoidable.